Reading the stats

[sojourner65]

Beings I\'m not from CO and this is my first time, how do you make any sense of the number of PP\'s needed to draw a license? Take a look at <!-- m --><a class=\"postlink\" href=\"http://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Hunting/BigGame/Statistics/Elk/2014ElkHuntRecap.pdf\">http://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Huntin ... tRecap.pdf</a><!-- m --> Our original plan was for me to try for a ML tag for unit 12, with 1 PP. There was 162 NR applications among the 417 1st choice applications, for 100 tags. So how many points did it take? And did any NR\'s get a tag? We did decide to buy PP\'s and bow hunt OTC.

 

[cnelk]

The last time I looked the 2013 were still up, not the 2014.

When I get to a real computer I will show you how I read the stats

 

[cohunter14]

Here is a screen shot of the either sex ML tag for Unit 12. If you look at the red arrow, it will show you how many preference points each applicant has. So, under the resident apps, there were 78 with 0 points, 67 with 1, 50 with 2, etc. Same thing goes with non res points. So, with 100 tags available, it looks like you would need roughly 5 preference points to draw the tag, although a lot of that depends on the actual breakdown of resident tags available versus non resident. Does that help at all?

 

[sojourner65]

<!-- m --><a class=\"postlink\" href=\"http://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Hunting/BigGame/Statistics/Elk/2014ElkHuntRecap.pdf\">http://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Huntin ... tRecap.pdf</a><!-- m -->

OK, so from 11 to 6 PP\'s I count 93 (92 NR + 1 Res) applications. That would leave just 7 tags available but there are 10 applicants with 5 PP\'s. So even with those 5 PP\'s, you might not draw? Think I understand it now.

 

[cnelk]

OK, I see the 2014 stats are up finally.

I use both the HUNT RECAP and DRAW SUMMARIES - toggle between as they have both info you need.

From your original post Im guessing you want an E/S ML tag - Hunt Code EE012o1M

This is where the Draw Summary shows you how many drew - 65 Res & 35 NR

 

[cnelk]

So then go back to the HUNT RECAP and count backwards 35 of the NR applicants

And it looks like it took 10 - 11 Non Res PP to draw...

3-4 PP for res

 

[sojourner65]

OK, so there is a formula as to how many tags are designated for NR\'s and not just awarded due to highest PP\'s?

 

[cnelk]

Yes there is.

On page 3 of the Regs

 

[WW]

Anything the CPW puts out takes all day to figure out. So what I do is go to monstermulies and simply type in the state, type of weapon, season, animal, and unit I\'m interested in. They have the odds all figured out for you.

They may be a year behind so you may need to allow for the point creep in some areas. I could care less about how many points John Doe has. All I want to know is what my chances are!

 

[cohunter14]

Yeah, the funny thing is that once you think you have all of this figured out, you apply for a unit thinking it is guaranteed and then the CPW cuts tags by some drastic amount in that unit. This happened to us this year...went from a guaranteed tag to one of our guys not drawing :evil: