What\'s The Chance?

S

Swede

New member
Mar 4, 2014
1,722
Well it has been two years now since I have shot an elk. I have hunted diligently, maximizing the amount of time out in the elk woods. That is just not enough. I am going to have to change things up. I am planning on two scouting trips including time in areas I have not hunted or at least not in a long time. I believe by scouting and moving around, I can improve my chances. I want to be more mobile nest season. I am hoping for 80% confidence. Who knows if that is real or just an objective. Where I have hunted recently, the elk have just not been there in significant numbers. Will things be better somewhere else? I believe scouting and being more flexible can help improve the odds.
What are your chances of getting an elk next season, and what are the obstacles you recognize? What are you doing, or planning to do to get the odds of success up as high as possible?
 
I stand by my rule of guaranteeing myself a shot.
If I do that, it drives me to practice, scout and be prepared for that opportunity
Some of my best and successful hunts were misses.... ;)

If the shot opportunity all goes well, there will be an elk to hang at camp.
 
What are my chances of getting an elk next season? Until I get one that is impossible for me to answer for the obvious reason.

What are the obstacles? The easy answer would be time and money. Of course at this time of my life those two are quite related! More specifically however, knowledge gained by success or time spent in the company of those who have been successful is difficult to come by especially for a Kans. flatlander.

What am I doing to increase my odds of success? I plan to spend more time on BackTrak Outdoors :D
 
I\'ve got some buddies coming out from out of state. I\'ll be concentrating on them being successfull but I can garuntee there will be opp\'s to kill elk. This season I had about 10 opps to kill elk and 3 opps to kill big bulls so I am more than confident that my chances are near 100%. I will scout at least one new area in my otc unit and put in quite a few days scouting a limited unit for 2016.
 
Swede: It\'s kinda hard to move around when you have yourself tied to a tree, ain\'t it? :haha:
 
WW, I had not thought of that. Maybe that is why I did not get one for a couple years. I will have to have a longer tether on my harness, or spread out my stands. Either way there can be problems. I just know that opportunities to shoot an elk have diminished in the last 15 years where I hunt. :D
 
Odds are pretty high if I can stay healthy enough to hunt.

Odds of me staying healthy enough for an elk hunt have become very poor the last couple of years.
 
I\'m with you Swede. After encountering what we did this year in our area, I\'m getting worried. It was pure chance that dad and I connected when we did. I had cams up for two weeks into the season and after the 3rd day all spots when pretty quiet. So like you, I\'m thinking we need to expand our area and be more willing to be mobile. I look forward to our continued conversations about this as we progress through the winter and spring.

As for the chances, going into this past season I was feeling pretty confident however if we encounter next year what we did this year, I\'m thinking my chances are cut down to being 50/50.
 
\"Still Hunter\" said:
Odds are pretty high if I can stay healthy enough to hunt.

Odds of me staying healthy enough for an elk hunt have become very poor the last couple of years.
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+2 on that Pete. I\'m floating in the same boat as you. Chances are very good (IF) I\'m good to go! :wtf:
 
Hasn\'t been great the past couple years for my team. We filled 2 out of 5 tags this year and went 1 for 3 the year before. I\'m hoping for a 5 for 5 next year. I\'ve gotten lazy so I\'m getting back to my roots.....very mobile which includes bivy hunts.
 
\"Swede\" said:
What are your chances of getting an elk next season, and what are the obstacles you recognize? What are you doing, or planning to do to get the odds of success up as high as possible?
Click to expand...

I would put my chances at 50/50. This is simply because I typically at least see elk every year, with this last year being the first in a long time that I didn\'t. The 50/50 comes in on if I have the right tag or not. I am famous for seeing bulls when I have a cow tag and vice versa :D Part of my plan for next year is potentially hunting an area when I can get an either sex tag.

Obstacles? Hunting a newer area that I am not that familiar with yet. I also had to move on from my old honey hole and have yet to find a new one.

Plans to overcome that? I need to get at least one solid scouting trip in to learn my area more, maybe more. With a young family, those trips are getting more and more difficult, but I am thinking that maybe I can include my wife on the trip somehow and make it a getaway. I would also love to get trail cameras up in some strategic locations and leave them for a bit before the season. I am beginning to learn the real value of having those around. It is a way to have some boots on the ground without being there. Going to start a new thread about that...
 
I just want to draw a tag. I\'m handicapped in the public land dept. I live to far to scout economically.
Drawing a tag in familiar territory would be a huge boost.
 
I think my chances are great if I\'m hunting with Will. :lolno:

Work out and be in the best shape I can be in so I can cover ground. I\'ll be in a new area next year. I live too far away to physically scout it so I want to be able to hit the spots that look elky on maps and Caltopo. I think I am going to call more this year. Last year I was pretty timid with my calling but I\'ve spent the last several months wondering if I could have struck a bugle by being more aggressive. :problem:
 
Last Season I broke a 3 year drought...and it was the first time I had hunted solo. Realistically given that history, I don\'t think I could never get to 80 percent confidence. Over 15 Seasons, I\'m at about 60 percent on archery elk...but as a 2 man team we almost always managed to tag one.

After last Season, I feel confident I can raise those odds a little if I continue to hunt solo. Maybe I\'ll stretch it to 75% :think:
 
I am 100% positive I will at least have a chance to kill an elk. My primary goal for next year is for my wife to get an elk. My strategy is simple and it works every time. I will start hunting on opening morning and I will hunt every day as hard as possible until we have an elk on the ground. I will go anywhere and move as many times as it takes to find elk. Once I find the elk I will be aggressive but always pay attention to the wind. In my opinion one of the worst things you can do is go into an elk hunt with anything less than 100% confidence. Always remember, a slow day can change, literally in a blink of an eye.
 
Love that response Andy...makes me wish I had the time to make my answer 100% as well. But I love the fact that you will do anything it takes to get one on the ground. For any newbies out there, read that post over and over ;)
 
\"cohunter14\" said:
Love that response Andy...makes me wish I had the time to make my answer 100% as well. But I love the fact that you will do anything it takes to get one on the ground. For any newbies out there, read that post over and over ;)
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Seriously helps that his wife is hunting as well. For us with less outdoorsy wives (that we love) it\'s more about the balance. You can\'t balance jack with 100% of the load on one side:)
 
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