Overestimating Success?

[cohunter14]

I had a chance to go through and tally up the responses from our last Free Gear Friday. The results were a little surprising to me, so I figured I'd share them here with you all. This is an average of 69 people who are hunting this year:


The average time a person will hunt elk this year is 11.87 days.


The average percentage people gave themselves of filling their tag was 54.39%.


If each person was given three extra days to hunt, the percentage chance at filling their tag jumped to 63.01%.


I bring this up for a few reasons. First off, I was really surprised at the 11.87 days to hunt. That is awesome and way more than I anticipated! I also found the success rates to be very high, considering the average for all elk hunters filling their tag is roughly 10%. I understand people want to think positive, but I also think this is somewhat normal. Everyone gave themselves at least a 10% chance of filling their tag, and only 12 people were less than 30%, but at the end of the day the results speak for themselves.


So, a few questions for you:


1. Should we be more realistic in the percent chance we give ourselves to harvest an elk? If we are more realistic, wouldn't coming home with tag soup be a lot more palatable?


2. If three extra days increases folks perceived success rate by almost 9%, shouldn't we be looking at that as the single most productive thing people can do to increase their success rates? Or is there something else that you would perceive as being of more value when it comes to increasing your chances at filling a tag?


Let's hear your thoughts!

 

[Elk Noob]

I agree, I thought the success %'s were very high as well. As someone that's gone 0fer in the last 5 years with the bow I know how difficult it is. I've had chances each year but manage to screw it up one way or the other. Hunting solo hasn't helped, but it has given me a lot of valuable experiences.

With a Rifle i'm at about 75%.

I do think adding time is the best thing for success, for me at least. I'm mostly a weekend warrior with a couple days of here and there. One of the issues I often run into is finding the elk the day i'm leaving and not having enough time to chase them.

 

[wl704]

I had a chance to go through and tally up the responses from our last Free Gear Friday. The results were a little surprising to me, so I figured I'd share them here with you all. This is an average of 69 people who are hunting this year:


The average time a person will hunt elk this year is 11.87 days.


The average percentage people gave themselves of filling their tag was 54.39%.


If each person was given three extra days to hunt, the percentage chance at filling their tag jumped to 63.01%.


I bring this up for a few reasons. First off, I was really surprised at the 11.87 days to hunt. That is awesome and way more than I anticipated! I also found the success rates to be very high, considering the average for all elk hunters filling their tag is roughly 10%. I understand people want to think positive, but I also think this is somewhat normal. Everyone gave themselves at least a 10% chance of filling their tag, and only 12 people were less than 30%, but at the end of the day the results speak for themselves.


So, a few questions for you:


1. Should we be more realistic in the percent chance we give ourselves to harvest an elk? If we are more realistic, wouldn't coming home with tag soup be a lot more palatable?


2. If three extra days increases folks perceived success rate by almost 9%, shouldn't we be looking at that as the single most productive thing people can do to increase their success rates? Or is there something else that you would perceive as being of more value when it comes to increasing your chances at filling a tag?


Let's hear your thoughts!

1) No doubt, the respondents are above average, an optimistic outlook helps with morale, we share a visions of grandeur or are delusional. Or we can choke down more tag soup.

2) I think beyond having multiple locations to check, new strategies or things to try each year help. Sometimes that includes knowing when to say 'when'...and move.

 

[DEEF]

        @CoHunter14
You ask some interesting questions!  I thought that this contest was by far the most interesting.
[list type=decimal]
[*]" Should we be more realistic in the percent chance we give ourselves to harvest an elk?"  Realistic assessment would require harvest success percentages based on the population sample specifically participating in the survey; specifically, the general stats skew the self reporting somewhat because the participant is answering from a specific context(season+unit).  At least I answered with this consideration.
[/list]

I also believe that those of us on this forum are more educated, and or more involved with ensuring our success compared to the general population; therefore, our study should show we had higher harvest rates than those who have not taken the ELK 101 courses and or read books and taken seminars on the subject of harvesting elk.  I realize this variable only factors so far.
 
"If we are more realistic, wouldn't coming home with tag soup be a lot more palatable?"  Certainly expectations have influence on our emotional response.  It seems predictability in this context probably outweighs the potential let down associated with tag soup.  This pre-hunt stimulant is also increased if one has been exposed to the idea of "elicitation" and "positive thinking" which will naturally challenge our ability to forecast "realistically"  when considering factors associated with a low percentage rate. 


As I answered, I did weigh my prediction next to the average harvest of my particular unit+season.  Another underlying factor to this survey is that our forecasted success is intertwined with our current quality of planning, prior experience, skills readiness perceptions, and our innate motivation which excites our response to the harvest challenge.  The forecast question certainly triggers our desire and desire is a hard variable to extract a measured value to?I believe it naturally skews our thought-forecast toward the high success spectrum. 


I think an additional interesting assessment would be to report what percentage difference each person reported relative to the particular unit+season they are hunting.  As we know, certain seasons have substantially higher harvest success than the generalized average.


I reported 18% higher than last years average in my unit+season.  I reported the same percentage given additional hunt days because I also accounted for the benefit of the duration of scouting I will allot(both pre hunt and in pre hunt field scouting).  I may have read the survey question the wrong way and my analytic training is to blame for this.




2. "If three extra days increases folks perceived success rate by almost 9%, shouldn't we be looking at that as the single most productive thing people can do to increase their success rates?"  Absolutely! In regard to increasing chances I definitely would find value in more experience/time in the field.  This year will be my third season elk hunting.  Based on my experience I am at the lifetime rate of 50% harvest success.  Although my first season was my harvest season, I literally knew nothing about elk other than how many points I needed to count before I shot that elk?so this absolutely shows weight against my perception that Elk knowledge has greater influence on harvest success.  However, I was riding along with someone who was somewhat educated; so that transferred to my success for sure. 


You bring up some great questions that would provide an interesting long term study.  Charting one's forecasting throughout life would be fascinating.  I may be adding this to my hunt analytics log!

 

[cnelk]

Want a true Beta test?


Have all the respondents report back AFTER their season


I bet 10% still rules

 

[sjl2012]

Want a true Beta test?


Have all the respondents report back AFTER their season


I bet 10% still rules

That's only 7 elk, That would be very interesting to see. There are some good tags in there and some good hunters along with 35 1st time posters. If you could get true responses and all to answer it might prove DEEF's theory about "elk hunting knowledge".


1. With any tag there's always the possibility/reality of eating it, sometimes it's a choice. My thing is that people don't use it as an excuse. Oh this unit only has an 8% success rate, it's not going to make a difference if I climb over that ridge, I might as well sit at this meadow and see if my 8% will work here. A lot of people can't get by that mental barrier and using odds against them only discourages them more, in my experience. Positivism rules the day and at the end of a 5 or 10 day hunt eating a tag is a huge let down and disappointment, using that feeling as motivation for the next year is what puts guys into that 10% group in my experience. Personally I hate sharing camp with someone that by day 4 or 5 is negative "where are the elk, why aren't we seeing anything, why did we pick this spot, this sucks, etc... "


Be positive, endure to the end, and use the result as motivation to improve.


2. I wish some states allowed 3 extra days! There's a lot of knowledge to be gained in 3 more days in the woods.


It will be very interesting to see the results of some of these questions in January. I'm rooting for everyone that has a tag!!

 

[nclonghunter]

I also agree that most members on this forum are likely dedicated elk hunters and success will be higher than the average. I would believe that the state average is based on tag sales and success rate which involves a large audience skilled and new hunters.
For me adding a few days is still encompassed into the total hunt. You may score on day one or any day before your hunt is over. Adding additional days will likely not add to the overall possibility of scoring. I did not change my percentage for success on the question.
I also consider my success as part of my hunting group. We hunt together for archery and call and plan as a group. If I call a bull in and my buddy kills it I feel I have also succeeded. Therefore I did go a bit higher in success rate than I would be as a solo hunter.

 

[cnelk]

In the past 20 years, there has only been 6 times I didnt filled my elk tag(s). Even on those years I always had a shot at an elk.


Some years I shot more than one elk.


In the past 30 years, my buddies and I have pulled over 100 elk off the mountains - doing archery/ML/Rifle seasons


I have no idea what success rate that equates to, but the 'fun meter' is always pegged.

 

[Rdub]

For the past 10 years I have hunted the same area with the same guys and have only had to eat tag soup 3 times. 7/10 for me seems like a fair percentage of success. Knowing the area and working as a team with the other hunters in my group has helped a lot.

 

[KHNC]

Maybe the "10%" of people who always fill an elk tag are on this forum? Overall, the number of members is FARRRRR less than the actual amount of hunters in the woods each fall. So its feasible the numbers could be skewed higher due to the quality of hunters here.

 

[jspencer]

I filled my tag on day 4 and gave myself a 90% chance of filling my tag.  I did a ton of scouting this year but shot my bull in a place I had not scouted but pinned on my onX.  I also shot the first bull that I had an opportunity at, I have a hard time passing bulls unless it is a LE tag.

It would be interesting to see how everyone did after the season is over and compare expectations to actual results. 

My overall archery success is 63% over 16 years (10/16), that is including 2 spikes and 2 cows.  Most of the tag soup years were when I was hunting on the opposite side of the state and it was hard to make a second or third trip.